JXM Review

Periodically, we like to take a look at the performance of our JXM stock picks.  As we strive to stay ahead of the market, we consistently review our performance and make adjustments in our algorithm if necessary.

The following table is a summary of our most recent stock picks:

Price Performance

To analyze our performance, we recorded the date of our stock pick, the ticker symbol, the position held, and the stock price after 5, 10, 15, 30, 45, and 60 day hold periods.  We then calculate the percentage price change for each period while averaging the performance for each stock as well as each time period.

The JXM selections appear to be fairly strong, predicting a successful outcome over 80% of the time, as measured by positive price movement on average or at any given period.  If an investor held each of these stocks for only 45 days, they would have an average performance of nearly 10%, with only 2 losing positions.

It should be noted that this table does dot not reflect managed positions such as short term holds, options or even stop loss protection. With such protections, the performance would be even stronger.

Based on these results, it appears the algorithm is working and does not require any adjustments to account for any changes in the overall market.

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Heathcare June Seasonality

Heading into June we did our typical homework which was to focus on 3-4 names who tend to succeed in June.    Here is our watch list with historical performances in June going back to 1980

juneHC24.png

These are sorted by the 5 year average

ACAD IONS AND VRTX were the 3 we put our focus on.

We ended up buying IONS and VRTX only so this writeup will mainly show data on those names.

Below is every trading date for IONS since 1990.

IONS2.png

Below is the 3,5,10 and inception averages along with this years action to track performance

IONS3.png

When we focus on the average time frames and graph it, it tends to tell a story.

The worst IONS has done on average is +4.52% in June and the best was +12.47%.

As of today IONS is up 12.70% in June and we have another winner

IONS.png

We will apply the same method to VRTX

Below is again the raw data for each trading day

VRTX2.png

Now we organize it by the averages using our specific time lines.

VRTX3.png

Here is the chart of VRTX in June.   It looks to have plenty of upside when you compare to the 3 and 10 year averages.

VRTX.png

My chart on VRTX was posted on Stocktwits and can be found here

On its way back to $140

While we didnt buy ACAD, its nice to check in on its progress since it only takes 1 min to pull the info together as its all automated.

ACAD hit the +10% mark for June and would have been another winner

ACAD.png

If you like what you see and are interested in having this data provided for your specific tickers, please contact us at JXMfinancial@gmail.com

 

75 largest ETFs

Technical scan of the 75 largest ETFs in the world.

The list is shown below sorted by AUM which is Assets under management.  It’s basically the total market value of assets that an investment company or institution manages on behalf of investors.

75list

Here is that list sorted by JXM strength (left) vs JXM weakness (right)

75etfscreen

The top 5 via strength is as follows:

IWM – Russell 2000 small caps

IJH – Core SnP Mid caps

VOO – Vanguard SnP 500

LQD – iBoxx $ investment (corporate bond)

MDY – SPDR MidCap trust


 

The bottom 5 via weakness is as follows

AMLP – Alerian MLP

BKLN – Powershares senior loans

GDX – Gold miners

XLE – SPDR Energy

SHY – 1-3 year Treasury Bond

TSLA – The 1000% trade

Don’t let the caption fool you, I didn’t scalp this for the entire 1000% (or 10x) and I actually know what I am doing but the 1000% return was on the table and upside probability outweighed the risk.   I will explain more about this trade throughout this blog

We all know TSLA is on a massive tear,  I talk about it some on stocktwits from time to time as its one of my core holdings.

The below chart shows the before and after of this massive breakout to put price into context

Before

tslathen.png

After

tslanow.png

Coming into June I was aware of its seasonality and intended to play some lotto call options to see if I can capture some lottery like returns.

The next image is the Yearly return map for TSLA and at first glance you can see the May upside (which we got) then price tends to dip into the start of June and quickly makes new highs.

tslapricemap2

Here is the June visual without 2017.    You will notice how strong June has been on average with the 3 year and inception lines topping out at around +9-11%.

JUNEWITHOUT2017.png

Knowing this ahead of June (which we did) some lotto June calls were very interesting.

The low price for the June 350s were $3.10 with a high price of $34.00.   If you caught the entire move, that’s a 10 bagger or the 1000% mentioned above.

TSLAoptionchain1.png

Now lets take a look at the June return map with the 2017 line chart.  You got the June average in 2017 right at mid month and now price has retraced some.   While this could just be temporary, we closed out the trade right around when the common stock hit the +9.5% mark for June as we know option volatility and greed can hurt the pockets.   This trade was > 500% return for us in short time

tslapricemap1

Lastly while TSLA is still in a massive uptrend,  some of the trends are running hot and RSI and today’s candle are currently showing bearish.   We will wait for the next setup where we can minimize risk and maximize returns

tslalvl2615.png

Healthcare 6/14/17

Todays HC scan focused on stocks market cap over 50 million with average volume > 1 mln while in the Healthcare sector with price over $10 and above its 200DMA

This yielded 71 names.   We filtered this down with a slim technical scan to 24 to narrow the focus and put those 24 names through the complete level 2 filtration

Here are the 24 names that made the level 2 scan

24HCscan

This is how they rank coming out

HCSCAN2

 

Our focus will be on the names slightly above the middle of the pack (60% score) to try and time the next move.

First up is ABBV

Finally coming out of this weekly triangle.  Stock looks poised for new highs and we like this for more continuation

ABBV1.png

Next is CNC

This is something we have highlight recently because it scores well in the JXM24 but its level 2 is starting to perk up now.  Cleared is downtrend nicely, just needs to get back over the highs that started the set of lower highs.  Once it does that, a new uptrend should start

CNC1.png

Another one is CLVS

Big picture is that gap fill back around $100.  Shorter term it broke the neckline of a smaller inverse head and shoulder while also taking out the short term downtrend.  We expect this to retest the 2017 highs

CLVS.png

Lastly we have BKD

Long term bottom taking place.   Lower trend line hows higher lows after higher lows. Price is currently testing the longer term downtrend.  Back in 2010 and 2011 there was nice demand around this price that started massive upside moves

BKD.png

ALGN – Some recent activity

What a difference a price correction makes…..

ALGN Price

While ALGN sat in the upper $140s, it suffered in our JXM analysis, not only falling outside of the top 5, put placing a distant 16th place (below snap shot from 6/11/17).

HC-6-11-17

A day later, after the price correction, ALGN moved back into the Top 5.

HC-6-12-17

This swing displays the power of regular sheet scoring as well as the Valuation Level.  On June 11th, the Valuation score for ALGN was a terrible 38%, but increased to 65% after the price correction.  Backed by dominate Fundamentals, Guru ratings, and JXM Rules, ALGN moved back into the top 3.  While this is a nice overall score, the stock still suffers from a Technical score of only 56%, which is below our target range.

This may indicate a move back to a summer flat-line, as the below chart shows:

10 Yr Historical

As we have stated in the past, should ALGN follow this historic trend, it will be a strong purchase opportunity leading to its earnings report:

EPS History

Last year, it increased by nearly 20% in the month that sandwiched it’s report.

We will check again in a few weeks to see where this one stands.

As an aside, this Healthcare run is filled with potential gems, including EW, VRTX, SUPN, and ABMD.  While ABMD has been on our radar for awhile, we recently posted on SUPN.  VRTX may require a post of its own.

Internet Information Providers

Today we look back at the IIP industry and see how its doing year to date.

As an industry whole, its ranked 20th YTD and up +25.73% in that same time period.   Solid performance from a sturdy industry inside a powerful sector

IIP1.png

Here is a chart of the trailing 12 months showing the trend.  Since the start of 2017, the SMA50 has acted as strong support.

IIP2.png

While this industry has 51 active names, we filter it down to 24 to make the program quicker and cleaner.  Our current IIP setup is actually only 23 names as LNKD was acquired.   Below is a snapshot of our IIP industry input page.

iip3.png

This industry is up +1.46% in the last month and we don’t see any concern in the averages to think this cant continue higher

Run strength is flat but up vs sector and industry

Rules have improved some along with the techincals

New growth has also doubled from 8 to 16%

ipp4

On 5/10 we highlighted this industry with the below summary

GRUB51017

The top 6 were GRUB, FB, ATHM, GOOGL YY & WB

Since this run the results are as follows

GRUB – (2.95%)

FB – +1.63%

ATHM – +19.63%

GOOGL – +2.55%

YY – +10.43%

WB – +16.00%

If you bought the top 6 (all names >55% overall score) equal weight,  you would be +7.88% vs the industry just being over 1%.   The QQQ is up +1.5% during this same time period (5/10 – 6/14) to give it some perspective.

Our motto is strength in numbers and that’s a lot of numbers we analyze.  You do not need 100 or 500 companies to make an ETF, you need 3-5 really strong ones.   This makes managing the portfolio much easier and allows for easy rotation between a few names as they show weakness or as new ones show strength.

Below is the summary from today (6/14/17)

WBinteresting

Right away you will notice that WB went from 6th to 1st and its score is now 9bps better than the next (FB).   Its also interesting that the JXM 6 names are still the same.  ATHM is showing some weakness as the valuation score has dropped to 31% and well under the 41% run average, so we will keep an eye on that.

Here are some current setups

WB – daily chart

You had a base breakout then a gap higher which is now consolidating on lesser volume.  When you combine that with its JXM score, one would think the next move from this triangle will be higher.

WBchart

GRUB – weekly chart

Has a cup and handle feel to it but not exactly textbook.   The handle is very long and while it had a lower low, it now has a higher high with that last high on very solid volume.   If price can stay over 42-44.50, it just has 47.95 and then who knows.  It supports a strong JXM score so we are hoping for more upside.

GRUBsetup.png